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Friday, November 03, 2006

Nigeria, Egypt & Iran's nuclear exploits

How different is Nigeria really from Iran? International critics say Iran’s massive oil and gas reserves mean that it does not need nuclear energy (if its oil and gas wealth was efficiently managed and the US lifted sanctions to allow for further investment). Nigeria also has massive oil and gas reserves (producing about 2.3 million bpd) so surely the same argument should apply?

Perhaps the US is just sore at Tehran’s proposed euro-based oil bourse, which is unlikely to help appease the US’s yawning deficit, or has realised that it has created its own ‘problem’ by starving Iran of oil and gas energy investment opportunities and then saying that Iran couldn’t invest in alternatives. I’m more interested in the potential threats posed by Nigeria’s (and Morocco, Egypt and maybe even South Africa’s) nuclear interests though, not being much of a specialist in Middle East affairs.

Nigeria sees nuclear as a method of securing power post-oil. At some point oil will run out and so this move seems wise enough, however, Nigeria can’t even produce enough energy now and has actually gone backwards over the last 7 years, with the Nigerian National Power Authority (NEPA) failing to maintain electricity installations. Failing to maintain old electricity installations may be a little annoying to customers, but failing to maintain a nuclear station may be a little bit more disastrous: Need I say ‘Boom’?

So while there are probably some political hitches in Iran that the US feels it needs to tell the world about, providing help to a nation that has a poor track record of maintaining power installations may not be the best idea either. I am not against Nigeria’s nuclear ambitions; nuclear powers in Africa increase the likelihood of things like aid and diplomacy. I do, however, worry, that in 30 years time, an African country may be labelled with the dreadful title of being Africa’s very own Chernobyl.

While none of the African countries with current nuclear power programmes have been considered hostile (unlike Iran), African states must be aware of the fact that their nuclear ambitions may hurt their own people.

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